Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 27.885873 30.984570 34.534699 38.963921 44.432589 51.093012 60.036049
2025-03-16 23.524747 27.416572 32.274189 38.992669 48.428306 61.918918 84.327938
2025-03-23 20.530771 24.750421 30.358260 38.768160 51.957052 73.951574 120.446966
2025-03-30 18.430482 22.803911 28.911055 38.708986 55.676093 88.693184 182.218955
2025-04-06 16.667219 21.013678 27.308853 37.947550 57.934394 102.704951 279.740311
2025-04-13 15.899367 20.494479 27.447953 39.990216 66.270689 139.139121 740.479821
2025-04-20 14.776900 19.298303 26.322685 39.518538 69.250818 166.185783 2461.640367
2025-04-27 13.971051 18.481728 25.675326 39.763992 74.098915 210.644552 NaN
2025-05-04 13.320446 17.830595 25.200984 40.224774 79.871912 279.295811 NaN
2025-05-11 12.698927 17.161529 24.600797 40.281447 84.674165 370.281136 NaN
2025-05-18 12.090141 16.458366 23.852929 39.856163 87.863721 481.147345 NaN
2025-05-25 11.628973 15.958177 23.412612 40.034961 93.439952 716.766785 NaN
2025-06-01 11.133054 15.374348 22.776634 39.686021 97.252480 1090.286520 NaN
2025-06-08 10.687571 14.845477 22.193913 39.368101 101.269371 1925.292909 NaN
2025-06-15 10.273501 14.342918 21.614444 38.957482 104.852231 4374.295765 NaN
2025-06-22 9.922514 13.926295 21.163353 38.800809 109.837467 51053.032725 NaN
2025-06-29 9.536882 13.426942 20.506687 37.986214 110.986615 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 9.444750 13.433425 20.857607 40.003117 130.961709 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 9.138129 13.041084 20.360197 39.515794 134.863297 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.914042 12.784042 20.121539 39.752885 144.809631 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.722168 12.574109 19.963204 40.208896 157.901880 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.512396 12.320425 19.690952 40.263085 168.258872 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 8.281432 12.016984 19.289479 39.836835 173.774567 NaN NaN